ECIC IR 2023

ANNUAL Financial Statements for the year ended 31 March 2023

E

D

H

S

I

L I

N

B

2

0

A

0

T

S

1

E

E X P O R T C R E

L T D

O C

A S

C

R I

D I

F

T

A

I

N

H

S

T

U

U

R

O

A

S

N

F

C

O

E

N

C

O

O

I

R

T

P

A

O

R

Notes to the Financial Statements

The Corporation has no insurance exposure in Russia and Ukraine. Nevertheless, the supply disruptions triggered by the Russia/Ukraine war have further placed downward pressure on global growth with negative impact on many of the emerging countries that the Corporation is doing business in. The Russia/Ukraine war and COVID‑19 has resulted in many countries experiencing high debt levels with some even defaulting on their obligations with the case in point being Ghana. As a consequence of the impact of macro‑economic environment mentioned above; the Corporation raised the provision for incurred but not reported claims reserve (IBNR) of $91 million (R1.6 billion) for four projects ensuing the default on debt by the Government of Ghana (GoG). For two of the four projects, a claim of $15.1 million was received during the current financial year which is still under consideration. The defaults by the GoG have increased the sovereign credit risk in terms of our in‑house country risk rating model from a level 4 to a level 5 thus resulting in a creation of the provision for unexpired risks (concentration risk reserve) amounting to $7.6 million (R129 million). After year end, the Corporation has received a claim and notices of the lender's intention to accelerate the debt for the two remaining projects. This is reflected in note 36 Events after reporting period. The Corporation received two related claims under the relevant ECIC insurance policies in the previous financial years. It is ECIC’s view that the policyholder does not have valid claims and as a result the claims were rejected. The litigation that we had since 2021 has since been withdrawn. It should be noted that the nature of these insurance policies is such that in the event of a valid claim, the ECIC will typically have a salvage recovery that approximate the claimed amount in local currency, save for currency risk and the time value of money. 14.4 Assumptions, change in assumptions and sensitivity The methods and assumptions that have the greatest effect on the measurement of insurance contracts provisions are: c Claim provisions are not discounted for the time value of money; c The cost of claims incurred but not yet reported is individually assessed for each contract. The probability of default is estimated by experienced underwriters using systematic processes taking into account updated information on specific country and project risk; c The unearned premium provision reflects the risk profile of contracts and is a function of the amount at risk and the probability of default. The probability of default is dependent on the country risk rating, project risk rating and the unexpired period; c A concentration risk provision is held; this is calculated by comparing the distribution of exposures by country and industry in the Corporation’s portfolio with that of a well diversified portfolio; and c The unexpired risk provision allows for inadequacy in the unearned premium provision, which might occur where the risk factors considered in the pricing basis change from that used in pricing the contract initially. It is thus appropriate to allow for a change in the unexpired risk provision as soon as the unearned premium provision is insufficient to cover the future claims risk of the unexpired period. This would occur if the pricing process is updated or if political or commercial risk on a contract is changed. Change in assumptions The assumptions and methodologies used in the calculation of the technical provisions are reviewed at the reporting date and the impact of any resulting changes in estimates is reflected in the statement of comprehensive income as they occur. Sensitivity analysis An analysis of sensitivity around various scenarios provides an indication of the adequacy of the Corporation’s estimates. The Corporation believes that the liability for claims reported in the statement of financial position is adequate. However, it recognises that the process of estimation is based on certain variables and assumptions which could differ when claims arise. The table presented below demonstrates the sensitivity of insurance contract liabilities estimates to particular movements in assumptions used in the estimation process:

YOUR EXPORT RISK PARTNER

66